Fighting the 4 horses of the hiring apocalypse

by Steve Chambers, 10 Oct 2024

“Steve, Can you find me a decent AWS architect?”

It was 2017 when NEDs and investors first started asking me this seemingly simple question.

After 30 years of hiring people and being hired myself, that question suddenly crystallized something I’d been wrestling with for all those years:

There are four fundamental challenges that make modern hiring feel like navigating through a minefield blindfolded.

Being a straight-talking Yorkshireman 🧑‍🌾, I did what comes naturally – I told them the unvarnished truth! And you know what? The executives appreciated that more than any sugar-coated consultant-speak I could have offered.

That conversation evolved into what I now playfully call “The Four Horses of the Hiring Apocalypse” – a presentation I give to business clients today, who want to understand what they’re really up against in today’s talent market.

While it might sound ominous (and yes, I do enjoy sprinkling in some humor because we could all use a laugh), there’s a serious point here:

If you don’t know where the landmines are buried, you’re bound to step on one.

What follows is the distilled wisdom from countless conversations about hiring in the modern age, but with an interesting twist – we’re going to explore why, after all is said and done, working with a recruitment agency might be your best bet.

This is a living document, part of ongoing research. By sharing it now, I’m inviting you to become part of the conversation.

Give your feedback here!

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Instead of prompting an LLM, let’s prompt you to imagine being a Hiring Manager. You need to fill an senior individual contributor role. Let’s imagine it’s a top tier cloud architecture or software developer. Someone who’s in demand.

Let’s step through the process.

There are generally four ways to fulfill a new role

You only really have four ways to fill the role. You can try all of them at once, or one at a time — but every option is demanding, so you must beware of spreading yourself too thin. And, like that doe-eyed lover, recruitment agents will ask you, “Are we exclusive?”. 

1. Promote from within. 

It’s good for the company culture to invest in people/raise them up, they already know some of the ropes.

But it’s not guaranteed they will transition, analysis might be biased, might have to backfill. And an internal hire gone bad can sour the water somewhat. Especially amongst the internal candidates that didn’t get the job.

2. Run the external hiring process yourself. 

If you run the external hiring yourself, then you control all the levers. But have you driven an 18-gear HGV on a motorway at 55mph downhill on a windy day before?

All those levers are very time consuming, draining, and if you’re not experienced – potentially disastrous.

• Haven’t you got a team to manage?
• Is this going to impact your productivity? Are you bonused/incentivised on the hire?
• Have you got final decision or is it a committee you don’t control that can mess up your plans?

3. Work with a recruitment agency.

You don’t have to do it all yourself keep control: you can delegate a lot of the work to people who do it every day, a recruitment agency.

A great agency will guide you and act strategically and not reactive per role.

But not all agencies are equal. Bad ones will damage your brand by association, and you might still have to do a lot of the work. 

See the section from Michael Pelligreni on best practices working with an agency.

4. Outsource the role to a partner / service provider. 

The hammer vs walnut answer: outsource the whole thing. Partners have their own bench and recruitment is their problem completely. You focus on the service delivery.

But you have little control over their recruitment, and if you’re unhappy with whom they hire it means changing a whole partner not just one role.

CEO Jason Dance recently posted about ask AI to run a job ad for a FinOps lead. But the real answer is: outsource the problem (in many cases).

For options 2 and 3, you face the same four horses of the hiring apocalypse

Let’s say you go external, whether running it all yourself or working with a recruitment agency.  There are four challenges everyone faces, but not everyone expects or is honest about. Each of these adds time and cost to the hiring process. Imagine these as four risks you need to manage/mitigate.

Apocalypse 1. Finding talent 

The best talent is not the most obvious. They don’t have Open To Work on their linkedin. They are likely happy where they are. 

Do you know what you’re looking for? One of the biggest complaints from candidates is terrible job specs – like “10 years of ChatGPT” when it’s only been out for 3 years.

What’s your reputation? If your company has “been fishing” by advertising roles that don’t exist, or has even had people through to final panel only to hire internally, then this will be known by some out there because candidates talk and share insights, and not all the bad reviews are on Glassdoor.

Apocalypse 2. Attracting talent 

(why would the best want to work with you?), this is perhaps the toughest thing to face. 

The top talent choose work that they want and that will help them. You might need someone to work on a great project some of the time, but also to do maintenance or oncall some other of the time. This is like asking a builder to also clean the toilets. 

I’ve had people/investors at great companies — and not so great companies — be so blinded by their own awesomeness that they presume everyone wants to work with them.

Not everyone.

Also, have you got A players hiring As, or B’s hiring C’s… or… as @fjzeit says…

Apocalypse 3. Affording talent 

(fully-loaded cost of an FTE is 2-3x their base salary) – and contractor rates don’t look as high in comparison to FTE full package, and of course we have always had fractional people., 

Looking at the base salary / days vs. a contractor day rate is what an idiot does. The correct formulae is FULLY LOADED FTE costs vs contractor rates.

But even that’s not an honest picture.

The right contractor is NOT an FTE. You get them in for a specific task (which can evolve). They do their own training (sometimes). They take care of all their own holidays, pension etc.

As Austin Tunnel said on X today:

Apocalypse 4. Retaining talent. 

After all that hard work getting the right person in, what if they leave in the first months, quarters, or year? Just like in sales it’s better to keep and sell to existing customers than finding new customers, how to do keep good staff? 

So if you do go for an agency, what are some good things to do/look for?

First, what to avoid:

A bad recruitment agency will…

…just be reactive, both to you the hiring manager and to their candidates. The candidate quality is likely to be low. Their fees are likely to be low. They probably respond instantly at all the times of day and night because they have no business. They might be more networkers/talkers. Do they really understand the roles they are hiring for, or are they just SDRs/internal sales, and could they swap to Estate Agency/Real Estate without blinking because they aren’t engaged?

An OK agency will…

Act a bit like a market stall. They’ll have the good fruit at the front and the bad fruit at the back. They likely have a high-rotation of candidates. You should expect that some of their “good fruit” CVs have no actual fruit behind them – they are selling something they don’t have, like fishing. They might know about the industry/candidate types, but they won’t spend a lot of time helping you through the 2-3 month project.

A great recruitment agency will 

…first of all, vet you: if you don’t fit, they will tell you. They are selective.

In terms of competency and experience, they know the four challenges (something lower quality agencies and new/naive hiring managers might not). 

So what should you do?

Compare and contrast the 4 strategies. While they all take time, if you pick 3/recruitment agency then start asap and build your recruitment strategy with them. The more open book you are, the better your relationship will be, the faster you will get to the finish, and what will seem like a higher fee is actually cheaper in the long run.

All recruitment takes time, no matter which path you take. Let’s say it takes 2-3 months, then you need to start asap and get things like role, budget, and more planned out. That’s something else a good recruitment agency will help you with, and not just ask you what the answers are. 

What the executives say

What do the bosses of the hiring managers say? Here are some quotes.

Rhys Sharp, who’s worked at cloud hyperscalers, channel, and consulting

The secret to winning the talent war isn’t just about finding or developing skills—it’s about cultivating a magnetic culture. Top performers are drawn to organizations with strong, authentic cultures and reputations. While recruiters can source candidates, they can’t replicate your culture. That’s why the most successful tech companies don’t just build products—they build cultures that naturally attract and retain exceptional talent. The challenge for leaders is two-fold: first, recognizing that culture is your strongest recruiting tool, and second, actively championing that culture through thought leadership and market presence.

Rhys Sharp, Experienced Executive.

Anthony Sutton, owner of FresHR and hugely experienced HR and recruitment expert.

The cornerstone of successful hiring isn’t necessarily industry expertise—it’s process discipline. A structured recruitment framework prevents the common pitfall of overselling on both sides, which often leads to costly mismatches that unravel after the rebate period. While industry-specific requirements like certifications and technical assessments can be layered in, the fundamental elements of good recruitment remain universal. The difference between mediocre and exceptional hiring outcomes often comes down to having the courage to trust the process over pressure to make the placement.

Anthony Sutton, owner of FresHR

Michael Pelligrini’s “Best practices for hiring managers when working with a recruitment agency”

Michael works at Milestone Consultants, a recruitment agency specialist in hiring the right talent for the right projects. He coaches candidates and hiring managers for the best outcomes.

This is not a sponsored post. This is Michael giving his advice freely as per unfunded crowdsource rules.

Timing and Planning

• Timing is crucial in recruitment – coming to agencies as a “last chance” option can lead to poor outcomes.
• Good agencies understand and respect internal hiring processes.
• Planning ahead is important, even if internal searches are conducted first.
• Early communication about potential future needs helps agencies prepare, especially for contractor positions.

Internal vs Agency Recruitment

• Internal talent teams often lack the daily market engagement that agencies have.
• Agencies speak to candidates regularly and have better market awareness.
• Companies should choose their approach (internal vs agency) and execute it well.
• Trying to manage multiple recruitment approaches simultaneously can be ineffective.

Agency Selection and Management

• Working with multiple agencies simultaneously (“spray and pray”) often leads to poor outcomes.
• Multiple agencies can result in:
  • Agencies fighting over candidates
  • Inundation with low-quality CVs
  • Complicated point/commission disputes
• Best practice is to work with one good agency at a time

Value Proposition of Good Agencies

• Act as effective filters against unsuitable candidates.
• Build relationships with candidates that AI cannot replicate.
• Provide trusted recommendations to hiring managers.
• Understand that perfect candidates rarely exist (80% fit is often optimal).
• Can offer specialized services like “teams as a service” for specific projects.

Cultural Considerations

• Agencies are often seen as extensions of the hiring company’s culture.
• Poor agency behavior can reflect badly on the hiring company.
• Having a proper hiring process is crucial – can’t rely solely on feelings.
• Technical skills aren’t everything – personality fit and soft skills are crucial.

Market Reality

• Recruitment is expensive due to the risks and time investment involved.
• Quality agencies charge appropriate rates reflecting their value.
• Undercutting prices often indicates poor service quality.
• AI and automated applications are creating challenges in recruitment, making human relationships more valuable.

Project-Based Recruitment

• Some agencies specialize in building contract teams for specific projects.
• This can be more cost-effective than hiring consultancies.
• Experienced contract teams can bring valuable project experience.
• Different agencies specialize in different types of placement (e.g., fractional CTOs, specific teams, individual placements).